Straight From Stern - March 2026
- sstern34
- Mar 4
- 5 min read
From the Desk of Steve Stern, CFP®
Despite one of the coldest winters in recent memory, the Stern household has been anything but chilly!
We recently packed up the family and spent a night at Great Wolf Lodge to celebrate our cousin's 5th birthday. If you've never watched a five-year-old discover a water slide for the first time, I highly recommend it. Pure joy on those little faces is a reminder that life's best moments don't require a market rally.
Plenty to celebrate at home too:
Cole just turned five and is gearing up for his very first Tee Ball season
Cole earned his Tae Kwon Do Yellow Belt — watching him stand there, focused and proud, is a moment you simply don't forget
It's a good reminder for all of us. Discipline, patience, and showing up consistently are what earn the belt. Not so different from how we approach investing.
Market Performance — February
Source: StockAnalysis.com, verified March 4, 2026
Key Benchmarks: S&P 500: 6,881.62 | 10-Yr Treasury: 4.05% | Fed Funds Rate: 3.50% - 3.75%
February's Winner: Gold
Gold has been the undisputed standout of early 2026.
It gained +8.72% in February alone and is up +22.06% year-to-date.
Several structural forces are driving this momentum:
Elevated global debt levels and persistent inflation concerns
Sustained central bank demand for gold reserves across Asia and the Middle East
A softer U.S. dollar making gold more attractive to international buyers
These are long-term themes — not short-term noise.
If gold is working for you right now, it's because we planned for it to be there before we knew it would be needed. That's the whole point.
February's Laggard: US Large Cap Stocks
U.S. large cap stocks posted a modest +0.60% year-to-date — a notable contrast to stronger returns elsewhere.
After years of exceptional performance at elevated valuations, large cap U.S. equities are going through a natural recalibration.
Think of it like a star athlete coming off an extraordinary season — even a solid performance can feel like a disappointment.
Here's an encouraging detail beneath the surface:
The equal-weight S&P (RSP) is up +7.00% year-to-date
The cap-weighted S&P (SPY) is up just +0.60%
Weakness is concentrated in the biggest names — not spread across the whole market
A softer stretch from one asset class is completely normal. This is exactly why staying diversified across geographies and asset types remains such a durable strategy.
Actionable takeaway: Resist the urge to overreact to short-term underperformance. The portfolio is designed to work as a whole.
What We're Watching
February offered several important developments worth noting:
Oil Prices & Iran: The evolving situation with Iran has significant implications for energy markets. Iran produces roughly 3 million barrels of oil per day, making it a meaningful player in global supply. Any disruption — whether from sanctions enforcement, military tension, or diplomatic shifts — can move crude prices quickly.
Higher oil prices feed into inflation expectations, which influence Fed policy and interest rates
Energy stocks in your portfolio benefit from elevated crude prices
Bond yields may rise if inflation expectations increase, creating short-term pressure on fixed income
For historical context, the 1970s oil shocks taught us that energy disruptions can reshape markets for years. The Arab oil embargo of 1973 quadrupled oil prices and triggered a deep recession. Today's situation is different — the U.S. is now the world's largest oil producer — but the lesson remains: energy markets and geopolitics are deeply connected.
The Grand Chessboard: What makes the current moment especially interesting is how multiple geopolitical moves appear coordinated. Consider the board:
Venezuela & Cuba: Renewed diplomatic pressure and potential sanctions relief create leverage in Latin America
Greenland: Strategic Arctic positioning for resources and shipping routes
Iran: The centerpiece — energy supply, Middle East stability, and nuclear negotiations
These aren't isolated events. They're pieces of a broader strategic realignment that Ed Yardeni and other macro strategists have been tracking closely.
Oil Implications:
Short-term: Expect continued volatility. Headlines will move prices day-to-day
Long-term: Favorable for U.S. energy producers and portfolios with commodity exposure
Russia & China: Both nations are watching Iran closely. Russia has relied on Iranian drones in their war against Ukraine, this could change the dynamic in that multi-year war. China, as Iran's largest oil customer, has benefitted from discounted oil (from Venezuela as well). Without cheap oil, China will have a harder time exporting deflation and competing against domestic manufacturers. This triangular dynamic adds complexity but also creates potential opportunities in international markets.
Bottom Line: Your portfolio is already positioned for this environment. Diversification across asset classes — including commodities, international equities, and bonds — means you don't need to predict which geopolitical scenario plays out. The portfolio is designed to weather exactly these kinds of uncertainties.
As always, these developments reinforce our long-term perspective: stay the course, stay diversified, and let the portfolio do its job.
Client Spotlight
We are proud to spotlight our client Dr. Raul Caceres, a plastic surgeon whose remarkable life story has been captured in a memoir by fellow client Ira Miller called "Promise Fulfilled."
The book tells Raul's journey from a small town in Bolivia to becoming a physician in the United States — and how that journey inspired him to give back in a deeply meaningful way.
Dr. Caceres founded The Tiwanaku Project, a nonprofit helping burn victims in his hometown receive care they would otherwise never access.
This is the kind of story that reminds us why we do what we do.
A Bright Spot
We spend a lot of time in this newsletter talking about markets and global events — so let's end with something that reminds us what really matters.
19-year-old Juan Mendoza, a cook at a Texas Roadhouse near the border, was driving through southern Texas when he saw a car spin out of control on a busy highway after a collision. Without a second thought, Juan pulled over, ran into traffic, cleared debris, and pulled an elderly couple — 79-year-old Juan O'Matta and his wife Adriana — from their smoking vehicle. "Nobody stopped," O'Matta said. "He was the only one who stopped."
CBS News helped track Juan down and arranged a televised reunion at the restaurant where he works. The couple could barely hold back tears. And here's the best part: Justin Back, president of Acadian Ambulance Service, offered Juan a full scholarship to EMT and paramedic school — with a job when he graduates. The mayor of Weslaco, Texas even proclaimed an official "Juan Mendoza Day."
Juan had dreamed of becoming a nurse but couldn't afford school. He's now driving to San Antonio each week at 2 a.m. to make his morning EMT classes — then driving back for his shift at Texas Roadhouse.
A reminder that the most valuable things in life — courage, kindness, and showing up for others — can't be measured on any chart.
Source: Read the full story on CBS News
As always, if you are concerned or just want to have a conversation with a friendly human, call Steve at 443-812-5459 or email him to set up a meeting at sstern@abel-financial.com. You can also use our “Schedule a Meeting” link below.
Warmly,
Steve Stern, CFP®
Abel Financial | sstern@abel-financial.com
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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